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The 2015 NBA Finals are over and a champion has been crowned. Once the upcoming NBA draft ceases, the free agency period will arrive soon after.
When July 1st, comes around, NBA teams will have the opportunity to upgrade holes in their roster. The most prominent position in today’s game is the point guard spot. Throughout the league, there are elite guards at that position like never before.
Though Chris Paul and Russell Westbrook aren’t available this offseason, there are a number of floor generals available who are more than adequate. Here, I’m going to analyze the top five point guards as well as their possible destinations.
1.Goran Dragic (Unrestricted Free Agent)
Previous Team: Miami Heat
2014-15 Stats (Both Phoenix Suns and Miami Heat): 16.3 ppg, 4.5 apg, 3.5 rpg, 50.1 fg %, 34.7 3p %, 1 stl, 2.2 tovs, 2.02 ast/tov
Strengths:
Goran Dragic has an elite ability to get to the basket. According to Basketball Reference, 41 percent of his total field goal attempts from this past season were within 0-3 feet from the rim. Most importantly, he’s efficient from that area, as he shot about 70 percent.
Dragic’s efficiency is also shown by his effective field goal percentage, which is 54.6 percent. That number is better than LeBron James’, a player who often serves as the standard for efficient shooting.
Weaknesses:
Dragic isn’t a great defender. His 1.4 defensive win share total for this past year was one of the lowest for starting point guards.
I’m not sure if I would say it’s a weakness, but another aspect of Dragic’s game I’d like to see him improve is his three point shooting, Aside from shooting 40 percent during the 2013-14 season, his efficiency from downtown has dropped since his first few years in the league.
What’s Next:
I see Dragic returning to the Miami Heat on a five-year deal because they can offer him the most years. With a healthy Chris Bosh to serve as a pick-and-pop big, and if Miami pushes the tempo more, we could see Dragic return to his All-NBA form. He was interested in the New York Knicks and Los Angeles Lakers during the season when he wanted to be traded from Phoenix, so they could be possible destinations as well.
Best Fits: Los Angeles Lakers, Miami Heat, and New York Knicks
2.Brandon Knight (Restricted Free Agent)
Previous Team: Phoenix Suns
2014-15 Stats (Both Milwaukee Bucks and Phoenix Suns): 17.0 ppg, 5.2 apg, 3.9 rpg, 42.2 fg %, 38.9 3p %, 1.4 stl, 3.0 tovs, 1.75 ast/tov
Strengths:
Knight has the most potential among the players on this list. I was tempted to put him ahead of Dragic as the number one available point guard for a couple reasons: He is six years younger and he is a much better defender.
Knight has shown he’s more than capable shooting from distance. The only season he shot below 36 percent from that range was 2013-14.
Weaknesses:
Knight needs to take better care of the ball. His 1.75 assist-to-turnover ratio is the same as turnover prone Michael Carter-Williams and worse than Jeremy Lin. In addition to that, he needs to improve his shooting efficiency. He has a career shooting percentage of 41.7 from the field.Though he gets to the basket well, his 44 percent shooting around the rim shows he has trouble finishing.
What’s Next:
Despite falling off in many statistical categories after the trade to the Phoenix Suns last year, Phoenix will probably match any offer for Knight, which should be a long-term deal.
As a restricted free agent, they can match any offer for Knight. Plus, reports are the front office favors him over fellow point guard Eric Bledsoe, whose name is on the trade block.
If he is gone and Knight shoulders the point guard duties alone, he should improve upon what was a second half slump with the Suns.
Best Fits: Dallas Mavericks, Houston Rockets, Phoenix Suns, and Sacramento Kings
3.Reggie Jackson (Restricted Free Agent)
Previous Team: Detroit Pistons
2014-15 Stats (Both Oklahoma City Thunder and Detroit Pistons): 14.5 ppg, 6.0 apg, 4.2 rpg, 43.4 fg %, 29.9 3p %, 2.4 tovs, 2.48 ast/tov
Strengths:
Like Dragic, Jackson’s best attribute is getting to the basket. Just over a quarter of his shots this year were within 0-3 feet of the rim where he shot about 62 percent.
He showed in his time with Detroit that he has the potential to be an elite distributor in this league. As his usage rate jumped up from 22.1 with the Oklahoma City Thunder to 28.6 with the Detroit Pistons, his assists per game also increased to 9.2. Further, his respectable assist-to-turnover ratio of 2.48 for this past season shows that he takes care of the ball.
Weaknesses:
I think what keeps Jackson from being second on this list is that he’s not a great defender and he needs to improve his shot selection and three point stroke. Nearly a quarter of his shots this past year were three pointers, which is far too many for a guy who is a career 29 percent three point shooter. I’d like to see him establish a pull up mid range game to compliment his rugged ability to attack the basket.
What’s Next:
Though it was a small sample size, he thrived with the Detroit Pistons as their full-time point guard. They seem intent on matching any offers for the 25-year-old point guard, as reports are Brandon Jennings is on the trade block. I’d be surprised if Detroit doesn’t lock him up for a long-term deal.
Best Fits: Dallas Mavericks, Detroit Pistons, and Houston Rockets,
4.Rajon Rondo (Unrestricted Free Agent)
Previous Team: Dallas Mavericks
2014-15 Stats (Both Boston Celtics and Dallas Mavericks): 8.9 ppg, 7.9 apg, 5.5 rpg, 42.6 fg %, 31.4 3p %, 3.1 tovs, 2.56 ast/tovs
Strengths:
Though Rondo’s stint with the Dallas Mavericks was a disappointment, he’s still a capable floor general. With the Boston Celtics the first half of this season, he averaged 10.8 assists. Most importantly, Rondo is a champion with playoff experience, and that holds a lot of value.
Weaknesses:
Rondo’s attitude and inability to shoot the three-ball and get to the basket are major issues. He averaged barely over 1 free throw attempt this year and even though he shot 35 percent from deep with the Mavericks, he’s a career 26 percent three-point shooter.
What’s Next:
Rondo’s past disagreements with head coaches make him not worth the money, nor the headache. If the Sacramento Kings don’t have an upgrade at point guard by July 1, I could see them overpaying for Rondo. I’d be surprised if he received a long-term deal from any team. Something like a two-year deal with a team option is likely.
Best Fits: Los Angeles Lakers, Houston Rockets, and Sacramento Kings
5.Patrick Beverley (Restricted Free Agent)
Previous Team: Houston Rockets
2014-15 Stats: 10.1 ppg, 3.4 apg, 4.2 rpg, 38.3 fg %, 35.6 3p %, 1.5 tovs, 2.2 ast/tovs
Strengths:
Beverley’s value lies in his tenacious defense. He is known as an aggressive on-ball defender, which is extremely valuable in the NBA because the point guard spot is loaded with talent.
Also, his three point shooting has remained consistent at about 36 percent. He has also increased the number of attempts every year, which is a positive sign.
Weaknesses:
Beverley’s biggest weakness is that he has trouble creating for him and getting past defenders. He is the kind of player where he needs a particular system to thrive, so his offensive value is best utilized where he can play off the ball and get open looks from three.
What’s Next:
Though the Rockets can match any offer for Beverley, I would be surprised to see him return there because they have been looking to upgrade the point guard spot for a while now. I think he’ll venture to Dallas to play with his buddy Chandler Parsons. He likely won’t receive any four-year deals, but something like a two-year deal with a player option is plausible.
Best Fits: Dallas Mavericks, Houston Rockets, and New York Knicks
Honorable Mentions: Mo Williams, Cory Joseph, CJ Watson and Jeremy Lin
http://www.cbssports.com/nba/eye-on-basketball/25221692/report-pistons-interested-in-trade-for-tim-hardaway-jr
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players
http://www.cbssports.com/nba/eye-on-basketball/25221989/report-suns-exploring-trading-eric-bledsoe-have-talked-to-knicks
http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/player/_/stat/assists/sort/assistTurnoverRatio/seasontype/2/count/41
http://hoopshype.com/2015/06/11/nba-free-agency-2015-the-top-point-guards-available-this-offseason/