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With all the free agent fever that spreads among basketball enthusiasts this time of year, it is important to make sure we understand how the process works. A casual fan probably knows the term “free agent”, but may not know the different layers within the free agent pool.
An unrestricted free agent is able to sign with any team he chooses, hence the term unrestricted. While a restricted free agent's original team has the opportunity to keep the player by matching other teams’ offer. Teams in pursuit of a restricted free agent can sign that player to an offer sheet. If he signs it, the original team has seven days to match the offer and keep the player.
So in short, the teams have the power to control a restricted free agent’s future. This makes the process that much more intriguing, because it shows how valuable a player really is to a team. This also may indicate a team’s plans with other free agents on the market, by letting their restricted free agents walk away.
Now that we have that clear, let's examine the top restricted free agents. We will also take a look at which teams may pursue those players with offer sheets, and whether or not their teams should match any of those offers.
1. Kawhi Leonard, SF, San Antonio Spurs
- 2014-15 stats: 16.5 points, 7.2 rebounds, 2.3 steals, 31.8 minutes
- Outlook: Hard to believe that the 2014 Finals MVP and 2015 Defensive Player of the Year only made $2.9 million dollars last season. Maybe even harder to believe, Leonard still has room to grow as a player. There's little question he’s a worthy successor to take the torch from Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker to become the next face of the franchise.
- What will happen? The Spurs top priority this offseason is to resign Leonard (even more so than bringing in new free agents like LaMarcus Aldridge). The Spurs will probably have him signed shortly after the free agent period starts Wednesday at midnight. Other teams may not even get the chance to sign Leonard, who just turned 24 yesterday, to an offer sheet at all. But the Spurs have been known to ask their stars to take a discount. This one will be no exception as they make room for a run at Aldridge or Marc Gasol. Who knows how well that will go over with Kawhi, because the Spurs tried to sign him to an extension at a discounted rate last summer but could not get the deal done. After a season that really showed his importance to the team, Leonard is probably looking at a huge payday.
- Best Fits: Let's be honest, nowhere but San Antonio
2. Jimmy Butler, SG, Chicago Bulls
- 2014-15 stats: 20.0 points, 5.8 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 1.8 steals
- Outlook: Butler had a breakout season in 2014-15, making his first All-Star team and posting career highs across the board. The Bulls have openly said they will do what it takes to keep him, but other teams should make notoriously, thrifty owner Jerry Reinsdorf back up his words by offering him a max deal. Before this season, Butler was recognized as one of the best perimeter defenders in the league (two-time All-Defensive second team) and he’s consistently improved his offensive game each year. Notably, his offensive game exploded this year, leading him to the Most Improved Player award. He showed a dynamic offensive ability this year that no one saw coming. He can get to the bucket, as a third of his shots were at the rim this year and he finishes at a 62.4 percent clip in the paint. He compliments that ability to drive with a solid three-point stroke. He even showed a back down, Kobe esk fade away. With all of that being said, it’s imperative to mention that he doesn’t shoot very efficiently from midrange and he’s needs to improve as a playmaker (because it doesn't look like Derrick Rose is going to improve in this department). He has shown he will work to improve his game and I see him improving these areas of his game.
- What will happen? The Chicago Bulls can match any offer made for Butler and have said they will. With the uncertainty surrounding Derrick Rose, Butler fills a void as a franchise cornerstone. But Rose and Butler do not have a sound relationship and rumor is Butler likes the Los Angeles Lakers. The Lakers will most likely see if they can land the unrestricted free agents before throwing a max deal at Butler, but the Knicks will probably have an offer sheet for him right off the bat. However, several other teams may have 2 guards departing (Ellis from Dallas, Bledsoe from Phoenix) making Butler even more attractive.
- Best Fits: Chicago Bulls, Los Angeles Lakers, New York Knicks, Phoenix Suns
3. Draymond Green, PF, Golden State Warriors
- 2014-15 stats: 11.7 points, 8.2 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 1.6 steals, 1.3 blocks, 31.5 minutes
- Outlook: In his first two years in the league, Draymond Green averaged four points, four rebounds and shot 37 percent from the field. No Warrior benefited more from the coaching change from Mark Jackson to Steve Kerr than Green. Green exploded in his third year under the supervision of Kerr. Not only did his numbers improve dramatically, he was the defensive personification of the championship Warriors. He proved to be a defensive dynamo that can guard virtually every position on the floor and allowed Golden State to switch everything. He is symbolic of the new age superstar, ranking off the charts in virtually every category of advanced analytics. By traditional metrics, he's far from a superstar but a simple eye test shows how important he is to Golden State. He ranked third in the league this year in plus-minus behind only LeBron James and Kawhi Leonard, not bad company huh? He also became the emotional barometer for the squad. It is something that numbers cannot quantify, but in the first three games of the finals Green was not his cocky, trash-talking, vibrant self and his team trailed 2-1. As Green started to look more like himself, so did the Warriors.
- What will happen? After the NBA Finals, Green made it very clear he would be back with the defending champs next year. This is clearly the best fit, the best coach, and best team for him. Kerr sit two time All-Star, David Lee just to allow Green to flourish. However, Green has given indications that he has enjoyed being recruited. But remember, this is the restricted free agent list and the Warriors hold the key. They will not let him walk away, even if it means giving him the max. That's what it will probably come down to as Detroit, Atlanta, and Houston are also expected to make a run at the third-year forward.
4. Brandon Knight, PG, Phoenix Suns
- 2014-15 stats: 17.1 points, 6.3 rebounds, 1.8 assists
- Outlook: It was a wild year for the former Bucks point guard, who was traded to Phoenix at the trade deadline last February. Knight thrived in Jason Kidd's system, being a borderline All-Star in Milwaukee. At the time of the trade, Knight was averaging almost 18 points and shooting 41 percent shooting from beyond the arc. Those numbers dipped to 13 points per game and 31 percent shooting from deep during his time in Phoenix. Despite falling off in almost every statistical category after the trade, the Suns are still very likely to match any offer made by other teams for Knight. Recent reports are the front office favors him over fellow guard Eric Bledsoe, who appears to be on the trading block. If Bledsoe does not return next year and Knight shoulders 100 percent of the point guard duties, he should improve upon what was a second half slump with the Suns.
- What will happen? The Suns lost Dragic, then sacrificed Isaiah Thomas (and a first round draft pick) to get Knight. After giving up so much to get him, the Suns are expected to make sure he sticks around. We will find out though, because there is no doubt teams will make a run at him.
- Best Fits: Dallas Mavericks, Houston Rockets, Sacramento Kings, Phoenix Suns and New York Knicks
5. Tobias Harris, SF, Orlando Magic
- 2014-15 Stats: 17.1 points, 6.3 rebounds, 1.8 assists
- Outlook: Tobias Harris probably felt very good about being in an Orlando Magic uniform again next season, until they hired his former coach, Scott Skiles. Skiles and Tobias Harris openly did not get along in Milwaukee. Things started to look even bleaker as the Magic drafted Mario Hezonja with the fifth pick in the draft. This, on top of a healthy Aaron Gordon to be returning next season, shores up the Magic’s forward positions. Overpaying to keep Harris when they are not close to contending, makes little to no sense for Orlando. I have been on the Harris bandwagon for some time now, but I do accept that his intangibles could be better. I envision him as a poor man's Carmelo Anthony. He cannot be the center piece (probably not even a second option) on a contender, but I could see him as a very solid third option on a good team.
- What will happen? The Magic are not expected to match a max contract or one close to it. Reports say the Pistons and Celtics are the top two teams in pursuit of the combo forward. I don't love his fit in Detroit unless Greg Monroe does not return. Even without Monroe, it is still unclear, as the Pistons recently traded for Ersan Ilyasova and drafted Stanley Johnson. The Celtics make more sense. Boston needs more versatile in the front court and it is unclear if Jae Crowder will return to Boston. I personally could see him in New Orleans. He would be surrounded by great defenders which would cover up his defensive flaws. The Atlanta Hawks may be in search of a small forward if DeMarre Carroll exits. The Portland Trail Blazers just traded Nicolas Batum and it looks like LaMarcus Aldridge is as good as gone. There is no shortage of options for Harris.
- Best Fits: Celtics, Pelicans, Pistons, Blazers, Hawks and Magic
JUST MISSED THE CUT:
• Reggie Jackson, PG, Detroit Pistons
After trading for Jackson at the trade deadline, the Pistons are expected to pay him handsomely as a restricted free agent. But throughout his career, Jackson has struggled to get to the free-throw line (1.8 attempts per game) and hit threes (career 29.4 percent shooter). Though it was a small sample size, he thrived with the Detroit Pistons as their full-time point guard. They seem intent on matching any offers for the 25-year-old point guard, as reports are Brandon Jennings is on the trade block. I’d be surprised if Detroit doesn’t lock him up for a long-term deal.
• Khris Middleton, SG, Milwaukee Bucks
Reports are that the Milwaukee Bucks are going to match any offer for Middleton. I think it would be smart as the young guard shows promise. I think he’ll remain with Milwaukee for at least three years. Any team in need of shooting could use his services though.
• Tristan Thompson, PF, Cleveland Cavaliers
Proved his worth in the NBA Finals. Whether Love stays or goes, Thompson has a big pay day coming from Cleveland.
• Patrick Beverley, PG, Houston Rockets
Beverley is a tenacious defender and a decent three-point shooter, making him an attractive option for teams looking for a mid-tier option at the point (or just some added defense). Though the Rockets can match any offer for Beverley, I would be surprised to see him return there because they have been looking to upgrade the position for some time now spot. He may venture over to Dallas if they don't land a top point guard.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/?mobile=false
http://www.nba.com/2015/news/hca/06/01/the-list-top-10-2015-free-agents/