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*Photo via Getty Images
The narrative around J.R. Smith this offseason has been about as hot and cold as the player himself. When Smith chose to opt out of his $6.4 million player option to try and cash in on this summer’s free agency frenzy, it was followed by the familiar reaction of the media (and internet en masse) questioning his decision-making. His offseason did include a heartwarming moment when he enlisted his daughter’s help to propose to the child’s mother. However, not even this story could go untainted, as members of the media reported that J.R. dumped his long-time girlfriend in order to go through with the proposal. It may not be a fairytale love story but then again J.R. is no Prince Charming. At this point in his career, J.R. is more widely known for his antics both on and off the court than he is for his quality of play. His transgressions are widely documented and do not bear repeating (though that is typically the most fun part of writing a JRticle).
With all that said, make no mistake about it, the Cavaliers are a better team with J.R. Smith. In a league where spacing is valued at a premium, 3-point shooting is a prerequisite for a championship contending team. And get this, J.R. is a premier 3-point shooter. That’s right. I’m not talking exclusively about J.R. Smith when he gets hot, either. I’m talking about average J.R. Smith.
There was a time when the only statistical evidence available to corroborate a statement like that was Smith’s 7th overall rank in 3-point field goal percentage among qualifying players* who shot at least 5 3-pointers per game (all stats from NBA.com):
*Player must have played in at least two-thirds of games from the 2014-2015 season to qualify
Clearly, Smith is in elite company among the NBA’s volume 3-point shooters. However, the important distinction here is *how* J.R. gets his shot attempts. The NBA’s player tracking statistics allow us to see the types of shots and plays that lead to Smith’s success.
Catch and Shoot
Smith was top six in the NBA in catch and shoot 3-point shooting among players who took at least 4 such shots per game:
The five players ranked above Smith in this category are essentially the Mt. Rushmore (if those lazy sculptors ever add a fifth president) of catching + shooting. The beautiful thing about the game of basketball is that Smith’s contributions do not happen in a vacuum. I believe it was W.B. “We Ballin” Yeats who said “3-point shooting begets 3-point shooting.” In other words, 3-point shooting leads to increased spacing, which creates room for dribble-drives, which generates kick out opportunities for catch and shoot attempts. A comparison between the Cavaliers before and after the J.R. Smith trade demonstrates this relationship (I realize that Timofey Mozgov and Iman Shumpert were also acquired at this time, but neither player has the catch and shoot ability of Smith). Before the mid-season trade, the Cavaliers ranked 20th in the league in catch and shoot 3-point percentage at 36.1% on 17 attempts per game. After the trade, though, the Cavaliers shot up to 4th in the league at 39.3% on nearly 21 attempts per game (!).
Open Shots
J.R. Smith has been quoted as saying, “I’d rather take a contested shot than an open shot any day…It’s kind of boring when you take open shots.” To the contrary, providing sound bites may be the only thing Smith is better at than hitting open shots. NBA.com’s player tracking defines an “open” shot as one where the nearest defender is between 4-6 feet away. Take a look at the NBA’s top “open-shot” shooters among players who attempted at least 4 per game:
The stat used above is “Effective Field Goal %” which adjusts for 3-pointers being worth more than 2-point shots. After I finally picked my jaw up off the floor and took a closer look at this chart, something else struck me. Not only does J.R. hit open shots with great accuracy, he also takes them with the most frequency. That’s because after J.R. joined Cleveland, no other offense generated a greater number of open 3-point shots than the Cavs. Smith is now playing in the perfect system that allows him to get more open looks than ever before and the offense as a whole benefits from it. When J.R. was on the floor, the Cavaliers averaged 110.2 points per 100 possessions, a mark that would have led the league.
Smith’s detractors (of which there are many) will point to this past Finals performance as proof that he cannot be a key contributor on a championship-winning team. On the surface, this seems like a valid argument. Smith’s Finals shooting statistics of 11.5 PPG on 31/29/60 (FG% / 3P% / FT%) splits are indicative of a player that choked when the moment became too big. However, that explanation fails to account for a number of things, including Smith’s Conference Finals performance where he averaged 18 PPG on 50/47/80 splits to go along with 7.5 rebounds per game.
By now, we should have learned a couple things about the enigmatic Smith. For one, he *can* be “the man.” We’ve seen him play the hero enough to know that he has the skills, talent and unabashed self-confidence to perform on the biggest stage as he did in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals this past spring. When Smith is “on” he can break records. The other thing we should have learned is that you cannot count on him to be “the man.” At this stage of his career Smith is one of the league’s top marksman - a very good fourth scoring option who can either shoot his team into or out of contention on any given night. A healthy Cavaliers team has the luxury of being able to ride Smith’s hot hand when he is going, but can also afford to sit him when he is cold. Smith is just the cherry on top for a healthy Cavs team; however he was forced to be a main course for the injury-riddled 2015 Finals squad. When both Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving went down with injuries, the Cavs were forced to rely on Smith as their second scoring option, a role that he cannot play at the championship level.
Ultimately, the Cavs wagered on their future health and made the right decision in bringing J.R. back. Some analysts have even opined that Smith was smart to opt out despite leaving money on the table. Either way, if J.R. continues to shoot the ball at an elite level, these Cavaliers could be giving the whole league the pipe next season.
