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Duke Basketball Report
Adrian Wojnarowski reported late last night that the New Orleans Pelicans are now asking the Los Angeles Lakers to include four first-round picks in their offer for Anthony Davis. The Lakers have already offered Brandon Ingram, Kyle Kuzma, and Lonzo Ball to the Pelicans. They paired that offer with two first-round picks, and cap relief by taking on Solomon Hill’s $12.2 million contract. There are only two more days that the Laker-Davis deal can happen. With the deadline closing in, this report is either the Pelicans trying to squeeze one last pick or player out of the deal, or it’s the Pelicans essentially declaring that they are holding Davis until the summer.
The Boston Celtics have strongly urged the Pelicans to wait until the summer so they can get involved in the deal. The Celtics can’t trade during the season due to the Rose Rule. Although the Celtics have encouraged the Pelicans to wait, they have yet to clearly state what they will offer Jayson Tatum in the summer. Jayson Tatum would be the best young player that either the Lakers or the Celtics could offer.
So let’s evaluate each potential trade. In order to do that we have to assume that Tatum is involved, any trade without Tatum would be significantly worse than what the Lakers are offering. We can assume the Celtics would offer; Jayson Tatum, Marcus Smart, and Jaylen Brown. They will also offer a couple of their picks. For the Lakers, we can use the trade they offered yesterday.
Possible Players Involved
Jayson Tatum(Age:20): 16.1 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 1.8 AST, 45.1% FG, 37.3% 3pt,
vs.
Kyle Kuzma(Age:23): 18.8 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 2.4AST, 46.4% FG, 30.6% 3pt
The preferred player here would probably be Tatum due to his youth and outside shooting, but looking at the stats, it's not a landslide.
Jaylen Brown(Age:22): 12.6 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 1.4 AST, 45.4% FG, 32.8% 3pt
vs
Brandon Ingram(Age:21): 17.2 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 3 AST, 48.7% FG, 29.2% 3pt
Brandon Ingram is the clear choice between these two players due to his length on defense and ability to score the ball.
Marcus Smart(Age:24): 8.2 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 4.1 AST, 40.8% FG, 36.7% 3pt
vs
Lonzo Ball(Age:21): 9.9 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 5.4 AST, 40.6% FG, 32.9% 3pt
Both of these players are good defenders but it's pretty clear that Lonzo offers more offensively and on the glass. Lonzo is 3 years younger than Smart and seems to be the clear preference here.
An arbitrary ranking of these players based on age, potential, and current stats would go:
1. Jayson Tatum (BOS)
2. Kyle Kuzma (LAL)
3. Brandon Ingram (LAL)
4. Jaylen Brown (BOS)
5. Lonzo Ball (LAL)
6. Marcus Smart (BOS)
After evaluating the players involved, the edge has to go to Boston, but it is pretty close.
Possible Picks
The Celtics have four first-round picks this season; their own, the Sacramento Kings, the Memphis Grizzlies (top 8 protected), the LA Clippers (top 14 protected).
The Lakers essentially can only trade their own picks, which won’t be very valuable because they are a solid team.
Obviously, Boston has a lot more to offer with picks that could be in the lottery in the next two years. The Pelicans have said they want picks and this would be a huge incentive to wait for the summer and get in on some of these picks.
Cap Relief
The Pelicans have $21 million in cap space this summer, as of now. That includes Davis’ $27 million. Let’s look at what Pelicans cap space would look like next summer after these potential deals.
Boston: Marcus Smart $12.5 Mil, Jayson Tatum $7.8, Jaylen Brown $6.5 Mil.
Result: +$0.2 Mil
Lakers: Lonzo Ball $8.7 Mil, Brandon Ingram $7.3 Mil, Kyle Kuzma $2 Mil, an piece to the Lakers deal is taking Solomon Hill’s contract which goes through next season, so the Lakers take his $13.3 mill off the Pelicans.
Result: +$22.3 Mil
The Lakers have a huge advantage in what they can offer the Pelicans in cap space. This cap can be used to re-sign guys like Elfrid Payton, and Nikola Mirotic. This cap can also be used for the draft picks they would have from the Lakers and also their own pick.
After evaluating all the factors of this trade it seems like Boston has a slight edge, but it is close. In theory it would make sense to wait for Boston but they still haven’t indicated that they are going to deal their best player. If the Pelicans wait until this summer, they also forfeit a lot of leverage. With these variables, it would be a viable option to take what you get out of the Lakers and start rebuilding now. Waiting until the summer could have more risk than it does gain.
Stats and Contracts via Basketball-Reference.com