Toronto Raptors 2020 Playoff Preview

Season Recap

The defending champion Toronto Raptors ended the season on a high note after going 7-1 in the bubble seeding games. Toronto posted a final record of 53-19 - setting a franchise high-watermark for regular season win-percentage (0.736) - the year after losing Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard and perimeter stalwart Danny Green. Nick Nurse finished among the three Coach of the Year Award finalists, Pascal Siakam became the team's leading scorer (22.9 ppg), and the rest of the roster has coalesced to such a degree that Toronto enters this year's playoffs as the only team in the Association with five players averaging better than 15 points per game (Siakam, Kyle Lowry, Fred VanVleet, Norman Powell, and Serge Ibaka).

Thanks to immense coaching, veteran leadership, and a well-constructed roster that competes voraciously at both ends of the court, these Raptors are very much back in the hunt for a championship. The rest of the NBA better watch out.

Biggest strength

As mentioned previously, Toronto can get offensive contributions from numerous 3-and-D options on the roster (OG Anunoby, who had a 23-point outburst against the Lakers in the Raptors' first game back from hiatus, isn't even included in the previously mentioned quintet!). But their 14th-ranked offense pales in comparison to their defensive prowess. Toronto sports the second best Defensive Rating in the league (105.0), doing so by combining a hive-mind approach to defense with incredible athleticism and high-motor athletes.

You can credit Nick Nurse for doubling Anthony Davis instantaneously in the post, the box-and-1 on Curry, and the great Giannis Suppression of 2019 among other strategic feats. Or you can credit the front office for assembling a roster devoid of defensive faults; one that will trot out the likes of Marc Gasol, Serge Ibaka, and Chris Boucher at the rim while sending out hordes of wings (Terence Davis, Siakam, Anunoby) and pesky guards (VanVleet, Lowry, Powell).

Either way you slice it, this team is built to shut down opposing teams on the less glamorous end of the court. Defense wins championships, right?

Biggest weakness

The Raptors, despite all their meticulous roster construction, are lacking one very obvious (and potentially damning) player: a go-to crunch time scorer who can and will manufacture his own offense. Kawhi was that guy. Kyle Lowry has shown that he can be that guy. On occasion, even Siakam will moonlight in that role.

But Toronto doesn't really have an undisputed alpha-level creator who can pull the offense out of the mud in late shot-clock playoff scenarios. If Kyle Lowry is prepared to fully embrace that role, then many an NBA fan will be left eating their shorts - yours truly included. Short of the entire team playing out of their minds in the clutch, the Raptors will have to live with two second-options (Lowry and Siakam) taking turns commanding the offense; a risky proposition when most of your prospective competition has those alpha-level creators.

Team's X-Factor

We know the Raptors are going to be great defensively. What we don't know is how much they're going to get out of their offensive scheme when possessions slow down and the lights get bright. Do they have enough playmakers to conjure good-to-great late-game looks in the half court? Lowry and VanVleet are both sensational on their night, but will they instead look to let Siakam generate looks on the inside? Marc Gasol can always be counted on for a dose of post play-making, and his slimmed-down presence will be crucial to Toronto's hopes of going back-to-back; the Raptors are 18-10 (0.642) without him this season, highlighting his ceiling-raising ability on a team that will need everything it can get out of its role players.

Players to Watch

OG Anunoby, having missed last year's title run, will be good for a couple of 20-point scoring outbursts. Ditto for Norman Powell, but on a more frequent basis. Chris Boucher is frequently making Predator-esque grab blocks and letting it fly from downtown. Kyle Lowry taking charges and doing all the little things right will never get boring. Siakam has put so many players into the spin cycle that I'm not sure he knows there are other options on the washing machine.

Quite frankly, watching Toronto play is beautiful; they are somewhat reminiscent of the 2013-2014 San Antonio Spurs in that the whole roster, one through nine (even ten), can pass the ball and contribute at both ends of the floor. If you're looking at the most intriguing storylines though, you'll have to be watching Kyle Lowry and Pascal Siakam.

Will Spicy P complete his development arc and fully embrace the No. 1 role Toronto needs to fill? Will Lowry seek to do the same in an effort to win his own Finals MVP award and solidify his legacy as the greatest Raptor ever? If one or both of these guys can step up, Toronto can really start to think about being the last team to leave Disney.

Estimated Playoff Run

After eliminating the Brooklyn Nets in five games (4-1), and then defeating the Boston Celtics in seven games (4-3), the Toronto Raptors will fall to the Milwaukee Bucks in the Eastern Conference finals (3-4).

These Raptors may have just enough juice to make it to the NBA Finals. Another wunderkind coaching performance from Nick Nurse may be enough to squeeze them past the Bucks and into a Finals date with either the Lakers or Clippers. However, this forecast predicts that Milwaukee head coach Mike Budenholzer doesn't forget the lesson he learned last year, and will translate the mounting free-agency-related pressure from the franchise into a Finals appearance for Giannis.

This year's Raptors are therefore likely to be no more than a stepping stone on Giannis' path to ascension.

Or maybe not...