What If LeBron Stayed With the Miami Heat

The NBA has been put on hold, but OTG is still hitting you with fresh content. During this hiatus we will be running an NBA 'What If" series. We will be looking at some of the most pivotal moments in NBA history and how a different outcome could have changed the course of the league forever.

In the wake of LeBron James’ decision to take his talents to South Beach in the summer of 2010, the expectation was to win championships. Plural.

“Not one… not two… not three… not four… not five… not six… not seven.” James said to a crowd of Miami fans.

James and the Heatles did reach the NBA Finals in all four seasons he spent in Southern Florida. But when he returned to Cleveland in 2014, it did leave the above promise unfulfilled.

What if, however, James stayed in Miami and continued that pursuit? How would the last five years have looked?

(One small caveat before we get in: I’m assuming Bosh stays healthy and doesn’t have his career cut short by blood clots.)

Turning back the clock to 2014, Miami was feeling the effects of going to four straight finals. Beyond the James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh Big Three, the team’s rotation wasn’t too deep. Lacking good draft picks and money to spend in the 2014 free agency period, Miami instead focuses on developing players through the G-League.

Hassan Whiteside, a high athleticism shot-blocking, rebounding center was cut by the Memphis Grizzlies in November of 2014. Presumably he would still be available to the Heat in our timeline. Now our Miami team has two lob threats in James and Whiteside.

In the half-court defense Whiteside’s rim protection lets James and Wade gamble more on trapping and stealing, knowing he’ll clean up any messes. (The only problem is Whiteside is on a league minimum deal, and with Miami capped out he’s guaranteed to walk when his deal expires in 2016.) Still, with Whiteside on board, the top-end talent of the roster alone carries Miami to two more NBA Finals, six in a row so far.

With Whiteside gone in the summer of 2016, the Heat turn to other ways to deepen their rotation. The sustained success with Whiteside allows Miami to actually hold on to a few draft picks. The Heat front office still drafts Josh Richardson in the 2015 draft. With Whiteside gone, Bosh would slide to the center spot to allow Richardson starter minutes.

The Heat still get several players from their G-league affiliate the Sioux Sky Force, too, including combo guard Tyler Johnson, all hustle grinder Rodney McGruder, and sharpshooter Duncan Robinson. Lastly they’d get some contributions from reclamation projects other teams cast off, such as James Johnson, Derrick Jones Jr., and Wayne Ellington. By being savvy and looking for talent through the g-league, later in the draft, and from fellow teams, Miami improves the supporting cast around James, Wade, and Bosh.

Miami blows through a weak East the next two years, extending Miami’s final streak to eight in a row. The 2019 playoffs would be drastically more difficult between the Raptors, 76ers, and Bucks, but Miami still remains the unbeaten king of the East to make it to nine straight.

When looking back on the last five years and how many rings Miami could have won if James stayed, the ultimate question remains what would happen in the NBA Finals. The Golden State Warriors had a stranglehold on the West, going to five straight Finals, and in this scenario going up against the Miami Heat five straight series. In their first series, the young Warriors are just too inexperienced on the big stage to go up against a veteran Finals team like the Heat, falling in Game 5. Three rings for James and the Heat.

In the 2016 Finals, a now more experienced Warriors team with homecourt after a 73-win season is a tougher opponent for a Miami team that has Whiteside already looking at free agency options. Still, the Heat have the best player in the series in James, and too much top-end talent for the Warriors, triumphing in seven games. Four rings for James and the Heat.

Over the summer, Whiteside leaves Miami while Durant joins the Warriors, completely shifting the power dynamic between the two rivals. In the 2017 playoffs, the Warriors are rested, having swept the first three rounds. Motivated, after losing the last two championship series and much more experienced, the Dubs are ready.

The Heat, meanwhile, are still retooling after losing Whiteside and dealing with a declining D-Wade. The Heat lose to the Warriors in five, bringing the Bay Area its much awaited championship.

By 2018, the Heat have figured out life post-Whiteside and have deepened their roster enough to let Wade focus on being a steadying presence and clutch performer. Fueled by their loss in the previous Finals, the Heat go into the 2018 Playoffs ready for vengeance.

The Warriors, meanwhile, have just been exhausted from a seven game series against the Houston Rockets. Still, the Warriors have so much talent with Durant that they push the series to Game 7, where the Heat win a close one for their fifth championship in the James era.

The 2019 playoffs are brutal, with Miami challenged hard by the East, but persevering nonetheless through to the Finals. The Warriors team they face there is equally feeling the toll, with Durant injured and the rest of the roster running on fumes. Still, these two proud franchises face off again in a long seven game series when Durant comes back healthy in Game 3. James ends the series on a signature play dunking hard for an and-one over Durant, winning his sixth ring with the Heat and ending the Durant era in Golden State.

Overall, the results are staggering. For Miami, this makes them one of the greatest, if not the greatest, dynasties in NBA history. Nine straight finals, six rings to show for it. Dwyane Wade retires with his seventh ring in a storybook ending. For James, this gives him all the championships and Finals MVPs he needs to say he’s the GOAT over Michael Jordan. It took a stroke of luck landing Whiteside and a savvy front office to find quality players on the fringes of the NBA, but it’s enough when the Heat have Wade, Bosh, and the best player on the planet in James. What if LeBron stayed in Miami is a question any Heat fan has asked since 2015. It’s still not up to his initial prediction yet (“not seven” I’d remind you), but it’s still more than worth it for James and Miami.