What if the Bucks Drafted Joel Embiid?

The NBA has been put on hold, but OTG is still hitting you with fresh content. During this hiatus we will be running an NBA 'What If" series. We will be looking at some of the most pivotal moments in NBA history and how a different outcome could have changed the course of the league forever.

The Milwaukee Bucks headed into the 2013 offseason with a lot of questions. Fresh off of a first-round sweep at the hands of LeBron James and the Miami Heat, the team decided to trade the face of the franchise, Brandon Jennings. In return, the Bucks netted a promising young guard in Brandon Knight, and a little known wing in Khris Middleton.

Yes, Middleton surprised everyone with two All-Star selections, but the summer of 2013 altered Milwaukee's fortunes in an even more impressive way. With the 15th pick in that year’s draft, the Bucks selected Giannis Antetokounmpo, an intriguing but relatively unknown prospect out of Greece. No one could have expected just how incredible a player the future MVP would become.

What actually happened:

The 2013-14 season was filled with growing pains for the Bucks, and it led to a 15-67 record, the worst in franchise history. Milwaukee would select second in the 2014 draft, poised to choose between two highly-coveted stars: Andrew Wiggins and Jabari Parker.

Both had solid freshman years at blue blood schools in Kansas and Duke, and each were looked at as can’t miss picks. However, Wiggins had a teammate at Kansas that entered the top pick discussion as well, Joel Embiid. The Cameroon-native would also spend just one year playing for the Jayhawks, appearing in 28 games with averages of 11 points and eight rebounds.

Embiid’s numbers underwhelmed, but here was a seven-foot, long, athletic, and agile big man. However, a stress fracture in his right foot suffered just before the draft, among other injury concerns, deterred Cleveland, who ended up selecting Wiggins. It also dissuaded the Milwaukee Bucks, who already had an unproven youngster in Antetokounmpo. Instead they went with Parker.

Embiid would slide to pick number three, where he was selected by the Philadelphia 76ers. The Process did not play his first two seasons in the league - it certainly appeared the Bucks and Cavs made the right move passing on him. Wiggins was dealt to Minnesota in the Kevin Love deal, and grew quickly as a star to start his career, averaging 16, 20, and 23 points per game respectively over his first three seasons.

Meanwhile, Parker started out promisingly for the Bucks, until he suffered a torn ACL in the 26th game of his rookie season.

Parker returned to action in 2015-16, and by the following season was averaging a career-high 20 points per game. Devastatingly, he tore the same ACL again later in the season. His unfortunate stagnation collided with Antetokounmpo’s rise. The Bucks let Parker walk in free agency just four years after drafting him.

Parker is now on his fifth team, a middling role player. And Wiggins has disappointed as a former No.1 overall pick, though perhaps joining the Golden State Warriors could revive his star-status. Embiid, meanwhile, is a multi-time All-Star and one of the most popular and most talented players in the NBA. This begs the question: what if Milwaukee had selected Joel Embiid in the 2014 NBA Draft?

But what if:

Going into the draft, the Bucks already had a project on their hands with Giannis. They also had a long big man in John Henson. Larry Sanders was still firmly in the mix as well. Let’s ignore that for a moment; Let’s pretend the Bucks select Embiid with the No. 2 pick, Parker ends up in Philly, and the rest of the draft largely stays the same.

Embiid’s injury wouldn’t heal any faster in Milwaukee. But the change in scenery spares Parker - For the purposes of this scenario we’ll say he doesn’t tear his ACL. Parker goes on to have a solid rookie season, averaging 15 points per game.

Milwaukee signs Greg Monroe to fill in for the still injured Embiid. Parker continues to develop in 2015-16, proof positive of Sam Hinkie’s Process. But with Embiid on the sideline and without a real playmaker, the Bucks regress and miss the playoffs.

2016-17 is where things become interesting. In the 2016 NBA Draft, the 76ers are just bad enough to still take Ben Simmons to pair with Parker. Meanwhile, with Embiid getting ready to debut, the Bucks do not select Thon Maker but rather opt for a shooter in Denzel Valentine.

During the season, Parker has his best year yet, averaging 22 points per game, a fringe All-Star. Meanwhile, Embiid makes his long-awaited debut mid-way through the regular season. He doesn’t play much, but flashes serious upside alongside Giannis. The future is bright, and the Bucks sneak into the playoffs but lose in the first-round. The Sixers finish just a few games shy of the postseason showing significant improvement. Most importantly, Parker again stays healthy.

In the 2017 NBA Draft, things stay relatively the same - The Sixers still think Markelle Fultz is a fit. D.J. Wilson lands with the Bucks as a high-potential stretch four. No significantly different free agent moves are made either.

For the Bucks, the first full season of having Joel Embiid allows them to break out; the team wins 50 games and finally claims a playoff series. Embiid joins Giannis as an All-Star, and significantly, Jason Kidd keeps his job.

Philadelphia also drastically improves, earning a postseason berth. The team loses in the first-round but Jabari Parker again averages around 20 points per game. Ben Simmons explodes on to the scene as a star. Philly’s bright future is coming into focus.

With a big three of Giannis, Embiid, and Middleton, the Bucks think they are set for a championship run in 2018-19. They bring in some shooting help throughout the offseason, via trades, and with buy-outs. Philly tinkers on the fringes as well - they never trade for Jimmy Butler, nor do they bring in Tobias Harris. Parker earns a big payday.

The Bucks have their best season yet, finishing with 55 wins and a number two seed in the East. Embiid has a career year. Giannis turns into a legit all-around threat, but finishes second in the MVP race to James Harden. (The fit with Embiid isn’t perfect, after all.) Meanwhile, Parker tails off a bit, and the lack of moves made by Philadelphia leads to another so-so season, but a year that ends with a trip to the playoffs nonetheless.

Philly surprises and finally wins a first-round playoff series, but they are bounced easily by the Raptors in the second-round. The Bucks end the year in disappointing fashion, losing in the conference semifinals to Boston. Kawhi Leonard still lands with the Raptors, who still come out of the East to win the Finals.

With fans disgruntled, the Bucks have no choice: the team fires its long-tenured coach in Jason Kidd. In comes Frank Vogel. The Lakers hire Ty Lue, and Jason Kidd still joins their staff.

Having to pay Giannis and Embiid, Middleton re-signs on a hometown discount, but the Bucks are not able to bring in the depth pieces they actually have this season. Philly meanwhile, swings and misses on several free agents for the second year in a row.

With their big three and a fresh voice in the locker room, the Bucks jump out to their best start in the Giannis/Embiid era in 2019-20. Milwaukee looks poised to grab the number one seed in the East. Meanwhile, Parker continues to wear down in Philadelphia, and with Simmons dealing with injury problems, the 76ers are quickly falling out of the playoff picture as the season is suspended.

Final Thoughts

Obviously, both teams may have made a lot of different moves coaching and roster wise depending on fits and salaries. But in general, this is a pretty good idea of what could’ve happened had the Bucks taken a different approach in June of 2014. Although many probably think the duo of Giannis and Embiid would be unbeatable, paying both and other significant contributors like Middleton and Bledsoe would compromise the depth that makes the 2019-20 Bucks so dangerous.

In Philadelphia, Embiid was the face of the rebuilding process and the roster was built around him. It is hard to find good big men and they likely would have struggled if they didn’t have him. Parker was a solid player for a few years, but despite being healthy he still never developed into what people thought he would be.

Ultimately, if the Bucks drafted Joel Embiid, they may have ended up having the success they have had the last couple years but it likely would’ve taken more time. As odd as it sounds, the Bucks selecting Jabari Parker in the 2014 NBA Draft may very well have ended up being better for both teams’ futures. Now, we will see if one of them can finally break through and win a championship.

Statistics Courtesy of Basketball-Reference