What Won't Surprise Me in the Disney Bubble

We’re living in weird and uncertain times. Everyday life isn’t the same and who knows when it will be? The NBA is no different. Currently, there are 22 teams in a bubble in Orlando, eight regular season games and playoffs, with the possibility of a play-in series for the eighth seed. It’s unheard of, never before seen and will probably never be seen again. 

I think the eight games remaining for each team and the ensuing playoffs provide the possibility for so many surprising storylines. Team’s like Portland who were affected by injuries now have a healthy roster. Players like Nikola Jokic and Marc Gasol have had time to look after their bodies and get in the best shape of their career. LeBron and Kawhi are rested and can go to war freely.

With so many changes in the league since it was forced into lockdown due to COVID-19, fans will find that the once surprising possible headlines might not be so much anymore. My home sport, Australian Rules Football, has experienced this since our season returned to play. Traditionally bad teams are beating championship contenders, up and coming young stars are outplaying the leagues’ top tier talent. There’s no consistency and at first it surprised me, but it’s since become the norm and it’s entertaining. 

Try betting on sports at the moment, it’s not enjoyable. I’ve had countless markets smashed by the least likely result happening time and time again. Like the world, sports are in random, uncertain times and the results have and will reflect that. 

So, as the NBA gets ready to return in Orlando, here are my surprising possible storylines that actually wouldn’t be such a shock if they happened. 

Portland takes the eight seed

With 17 games left Memphis were 3.5 games ahead of Portland in the ninth seed. Traditionally, that lead with 17 games remaining in the regular season is pretty safe. With Portland’s form before lockdown, qualifying for the playoffs didn’t seem likely in my eyes. Now I see it as a possibility. The fact that they only have to be within four games of Memphis only improves their odds, because I seem them beating Memphis two games in a row.

Zach Collins and Jusuf Nurkic return from injury and while they are missing Trevor Ariza and Rodney Hood, they have enough pieces to get into that playoff for the eighth seed against Memphis and beat them. Damian Lillard had the chance to rest after carrying a lot of the load during the season and now can share the responsibility a bit more with those guys coming back from injury. 

Dallas beating the Clippers in the first round 

As it stands, the Clippers are second in the Western Conference, 5.5 games behind the first seeded Lakers and Dallas sit seventh, 1.5 games behind Houston in sixth. I don’t think it’s going to happen, if anything Dallas could climb up the rankings and avoid the Clippers. But if Dallas beat Los Angeles, I wouldn’t be shocked. Kristaps Porzingis was in great form before the lockdown and Luka, now healthy and rested, is a whole different monster. Clippers pair Paul George and Kawhi Leonard are also healthy now and pose as a serious threat to the title, but they haven’t played heaps of basketball together this season, so anything is possible. 

Philadelphia eliminated in the first round

The 76ers currently sit equal sixth with Indiana, two games behind Miami in fourth. I’m expecting them to jump the Pacers and face Miami in the first round. That’s an interesting opening matchup. It wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest if the Heat eliminated the stronger team, on paper, in Philadelphia.

When they’re on, the 76ers look like they can make the Finals, but when they’re off, they find themselves as they are now, the sixth seed and sitting behind the pack. As I said, on paper Philadelphia are stronger in almost every position, but Miami have that toughness and team first attitude that is so synonymous with them as a franchise. Knocking off the 76ers wouldn’t surprise me and neither would a conference finals berth. 

Milwaukee goes to seven games in the second round

Milwaukee are the clear favourite for the title and Giannis is going to win back-to-back MVP’s, there’s no argument there. But after they steamroll either Orlando or Brooklyn in the first round, there’s a strong chance they face Philadelphia or Miami in the second. Both teams match up well size and physicality wise with the Bucks, specifically the Heat, who have had success this season with Bam Adebayo guarding Antetokounmpo. A second round against either of these teams is no easy beat and if it does go to seven games, there’s no home court advantage and no effects from travel meaning no real help for the Bucks.