Predicting Disney: Miami Heat

After overhauling most of their rotation from the previous season, the Miami Heat quickly established themselves as one of the best teams in the East. Utilizing Eric Spoelstra’s positionless approach, the Heat smashed their opponents on both ends, rising as high as the second seed in the East. Unfortunately for them, a string of injuries to key players and slippage on the defensive end led to them falling as far as fourth. Before the season shutdown, Miami was fighting with the Philadelphia 76ers and Indiana Pacers for home court advantage in the first round.

The Heat are definitely one of the teams that will benefit from the break. Injuries to Tyler Herro, Myers Leonard, and to a lesser degree Kendrick Nunn led to the Heat having a losing record in February. Injuries also increased the burden on Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo, threatening to wear them down before the playoffs even began. Now with several months to get rest, the Heat should be ready to roll at full force once games start again. They’ll need to be, as they have arguably the toughest eight game schedule out of the teams participating.

Eight Game Schedule

August 1st vs. Denver Nuggets – L

The Nuggets are a really good team, and with their star player Nikola Jokic looking slimmed down and in better shape, they could be even better. Jokic is one of the few players with the size and skill to make things difficult for Adebayo to guard, giving them a distinct edge. Throw in Jamal Murray and all the other good players they have and this looks like a loss for the Heat.

August 3rd vs. Toronto Raptors – W

The Raptors are a team that the Heat have matched up well against this season, having won both their games against them. Both teams excel on both ends of the floor, with long versatile defenders on one end and a ball movement heavy egalitarian system on the other. Like their previous games, this one will be a close one that comes down to the last few baskets. I give the edge to the Heat, though, based on past performance that they can deliver in those moments against the Raptors.

August 4th vs. Boston Celtics – L

The Heat just can’t catch a break when it comes to the Celtics. Both of their previous games against them came off back to backs, and both were losses as the Celtics handled the Heat convincingly. Surprise surprise Miami’s only back to back in this eight game schedule is also against the Celtics. They’re a great team regardless, with a wing heavy approach that gives the Heat’s defense fits containing and a top-level perimeter defense. This one screams loss, and may well be Miami’s biggest in this eight game span.

August 6th vs. Milwaukee Bucks – L

The Heat proved to be a thorn in the Bucks side this season, handing them losses in both their games. Despite that, it still doesn’t feel right to bet against the Bucks. Both losses showed the Bucks shooting uncharacteristically low from 3-point range, something vital for their success. While it’d be nice to attribute that completely to Miami’s defense, at least some of it has to be the result of cold shooting those nights. With a chip on their shoulder and at least average shooting from deep, the Bucks should take this game.

August 8th vs. Phoenix Suns – W

The Suns started the season well, looking like a playoff team, before falling hard and near entirely out of the playoff picture. Still, they did enough to warrant a trip to Orlando. The loss of Kelly Oubre Jr. significantly damages their already slim chances of making the playoffs. Without him, and with their porous defense, they’ll have a tough time winning games, period. Expect Miami to have no issue here, with this being arguably their biggest win of the eight game span.

August 10th vs. Indiana Pacers – W

Between the season ending injury to Jeremy Lamb and Victor Oladipo’s decision to opt out to continue his rehab, the Pacers are going to struggle once play resumes. Though the teams never played with Oladipo healthy, Miami was still able to handle the Pacers with Lamb, winning both their previous matchups. Without either, Miami has the clear advantage. Oh, and Butler will undoubtedly be looking forward to another match against TJ Warren. The Pacers are too well disciplined to make this an easy win, but nonetheless this should be Miami’s victory.

August 12th vs. Oklahoma City Thunder – W

Aside from maybe the Raptors, this is the hardest game to predict on Miami’s schedule. The Thunder shocked everyone when they came out looking great and continued that trend all season. Chris Paul, Dennis Schröder, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander form are the core of a three-guard lineup that’s terrified the league. Fortunately, Miami’s defense does well against guards, with multiple defenders they can throw at them. They’ve already won their only game against the Thunder, and should eke out a close win here.

August 14th vs. Indiana Pacers – W

Miami’s only repeat opponent in this schedule, this match will probably go the same as the first. Nothing will have changed in the four days in-between so neither should the outcome. Maybe Butler has cooled off after torching Warren in their first game, but otherwise this should still be a solid win for Miami. By this point the playoff seeding should be locked as well, meaning both teams will be more interested in rest than jostling for position.

Final Record: 46-27 (5-3 at Disney)